Expansion of United States LNG shipments now projected to sustain 555000 jobs yearly and contribute 1.4 trillion dollars to gross domestic product through 2040 while home natural gas prices stay among the lowest globally

Growing shipments of American liquefied natural gas are positioned to sustain 555000 jobs each year and add 1.4 trillion dollars to national gross domestic product through 2040 exceeding earlier forecasts while exerting minimal influence on domestic prices according to a fresh comprehensive analysis from S and P Global Energy.

The updated analysis forecasts that under present conditions United States feedgas demand for LNG shipments will double to 36 billion cubic feet per day within the next five years representing a 25 percent rise over prior base case estimates. The United States already the top global LNG supplier is anticipated to capture more than one third of the worldwide market in this period almost certainly elevating LNG shipments to the second largest net export sector in the country behind only United States civilian aircraft and parts.

The analysis titled Price and Economic Impacts of an Accelerating Export Industry revises December 2024 findings to reflect a wave of LNG investment following the end of the United States LNG pause in January 2025 with seven new projects reaching final investment decision and additional ones anticipated in the coming six to twelve months.

S and P Global Energy now projects total investment across the LNG supply chain will surpass 1 trillion dollars through 2040. Beyond expanded employment and gross domestic product gains the analysis anticipates future LNG export operations will generate more than 2.9 trillion dollars in overall revenues for United States enterprises 206 billion dollars in federal and state tax receipts and nearly 630 billion dollars in labor income.

Economic effects reach well beyond gas producing states with 42 percent of jobs and 33 percent of gross domestic product contributions arising in non gas producing regions.

The remarkable expansion of United States LNG continues to outpace all forecasts said Daniel Yergin Vice Chairman of S and P Global and study chair. What emerged as a 44 billion dollar annual sector in just the past decade now stands ready to become the nations second largest net export within five years.

The gains in employment gross domestic product and labor income are set to exceed all previous projections while the plentiful United States gas resources ensure domestic prices remain among the lowest worldwide. These economic advantages combined with low home prices plus major contributions to global energy security and the leverage from being the top supplier deliver clear benefits to the United States.

Effect on Domestic Prices Remains Minimal

Notably these economic advantages occur alongside a negligible effect on United States domestic natural gas prices. The analysis projects an average rise in end user gas expenses of just 1.6 percent per household from 2026 to 2031. United States domestic natural gas prices will continue ranking among the lowest globally for both residential and industrial users.

More than 45 years of identified commercial gas resources in the United States at current production rates together with the worlds most interconnected pipeline network enable both exports and low domestic prices said Eric Eyberg Vice President Gas and LNG at S and P Global Energy. Since 2010 domestic prices have moved downward even as demand for United States gas rose 70 percent. The recent Iran conflict demonstrated the resilience of the United States domestic gas market to external shocks compared with global gas and other commodities. United States Henry Hub gas prices fell during the conflict.

Moreover flexible United States LNG has converted export capacity into a domestic gas price shock absorber the analysis notes. During Winter Storm Fern up to 9 billion cubic feet per day of feedgas was redirected for domestic use supplying essential volumes for residential markets amid heightened winter heating needs.

Significant Consequences for Global Gas Prices and Energy Security

The analysis also examined outcomes from any reduction in export volumes from United States LNG projects approved after the United States LNG pause.

Under an Extended Pause scenario in which new investment since 2025 in United States export capacity did not occur global LNG markets would tighten markedly by 2031 driving prices 50 percent higher for Europe and Asia and effectively shifting up to 76 billion dollars per year to non United States energy suppliers that would meet demand largely with other fossil fuels including coal the analysis states.

As the United States is currently the leading supplier of LNG to Europe the primary beneficiary of any reduction in United States flows would be Russia the analysis indicates. Due to existing sanctions Russia holds up to 14 billion cubic feet per day of underutilized gas pipeline and LNG export infrastructure connected with and near Europe that could swiftly ramp up deliveries to serve regional needs.

The Importance of Infrastructure for Domestic Price Stability

The shale gas revolution and abundance of the United States natural gas resource base have transformed the domestic market into a new paradigm where infrastructure limits often drive higher priced regional markets and price swings the analysis states.

The United States possesses the worlds most interconnected gas infrastructure network with more than 300000 miles of natural gas transmission pipelines. The yearly volume of natural gas moved through the system exceeds the combined consumption of 130 countries. Nevertheless key bottlenecks persist.

The analysis reviews the potential effect of expanded pipeline capacity in the United States Northeast where winter heating and rising winter power loads have produced highly seasonal demand and sharp price volatility.

New capacity additions could lower peak winter month gas prices by more than 20 percent in key New England and New York markets during the 2028 to 2031 period the analysis finds.

The United States occupies an enviable position where supply and demand are not a major concern Eyberg said. Since 2010 domestic gas production has grown three times the volume of United States LNG exports. Infrastructure constraints and imbalances drive higher regional prices and volatility. The ability to construct pipelines remains the central challenge.

United States LNG Exports Today

44 billion dollars in 2025 exports
2.3 times the value of United States corn exports
2.8 times the value of United States soybean exports
Nearly triple the export value of United States movie and television related revenues
70 percent the value of United States semiconductor exports
More than 80 percent of the total value of United States passenger car exports

United States LNG Exports Base Case Economic Impacts Through 2040
(Change from December 2024 Projections)

555000 annual jobs supported through 2040 (+55000 jobs annually)
1.4 trillion dollars contribution to United States gross domestic product (+100 billion dollars)
2.9 trillion dollars total business revenues through 2040 (+400 billion dollars)
206 billion dollars in United States federal and state taxes (+40 billion dollars)
630 billion dollars in labor income (+130 billion dollars)
Projected second largest United States net export industry by 2031

About the Analysis:

Price and Economic Impacts of an Accelerating Export Industry is available through S and P Global channels. This analysis provides an independent and objective assessment of the economic market and global impact of the United States LNG industry built from a detailed bottom up approach at the asset and market level technology by technology. It is produced by S and P Global CERA Consulting and represents the collaboration of S and P Global Energy and S and P Global Market Intelligence supported by the worlds largest expert team of more than 1400 energy and economic research analysts and consultants continuously monitoring modelling and evaluating markets and assets. The analysis and metrics developed during the course of this research represent the independent analysis and views of S and P Global Energy. The analysis makes no policy recommendations. This research was supported by the United States Chamber of Commerce.

S and P Global Energy is exclusively responsible for all of the analysis content and conclusions of the study.

About S and P Global Energy

At S and P Global Energy our comprehensive view of global energy and commodities markets enables our customers to make superior decisions and create long term sustainable value. Our four core capabilities are Platts for pricing and news CERA for research and advisory Horizons for energy expansion and sustainability solutions and Events for industry collaboration.

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Media Contacts:

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S and P Global Energy
+1 202 463 8213
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SOURCE S and P Global Energy