Manufacturers noted supply shortages at levels unseen since late 2022, indicating that supply-chain bottlenecks are set to linger into the third quarter at minimum
Firms kept adding to buffer inventories, fueling another period of robust demand for raw materials, commodities and intermediate goods
Procurement activity held firm in North America and Asia, yet European manufacturers scaled back in June

PRNewswire -- GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index, a key gauge of supply-chain conditions drawn from a monthly poll of 27,000 businesses, indicated that worldwide supply-chain strains stayed high in June even as oil prices dropped and transport expenses eased, amid uncertainty over the US-Iran ceasefire.

Manufacturers reported rising backlogs from shortages of essential inputs at their highest point since late 2022. The figures imply that supply-chain bottlenecks will probably extend into at least the third quarter while companies await materials to finish customer orders.

To shield against additional disruption, manufacturers kept building buffer inventories in June. Indications of safety stockpiling climbed once more and stayed at their peak since January 2023.

Demand for raw materials, commodities and intermediate goods remained robust across North America and Asia, supporting forecasts that supply-chain activity will stay elevated in the months ahead as inventories are rebuilt and existing orders are completed. By comparison, input demand softened across Europe.

"The increase in stockpiling and ongoing order backlogs lead to one clear takeaway: businesses still lack confidence that the global trading environment will stay stable," said John Piatek, vice president, consulting, GEP. "Even with lower oil prices and reduced transportation costs, companies continue purchasing in advance because they anticipate more disruption. Although this supports the global economy in the near term, it also reveals that manufacturers remain highly cautious and are preparing for additional upheaval in international trade."

Interpreting the data:
Index greater than 0, supply chain capacity is being stretched. The further above 0, the more stretched supply chains are.
Index less than 0, supply chain capacity is being underutilized. The further below 0, the more underutilized supply chains are.

JUNE 2026 REGIONAL KEY FINDINGS

ASIA: Index declined to 1.95 from 2.96, marking its lowest level since March. Reduced transport cost inflation played a major role in the June drop.
NORTH AMERICA: Index eased to 1.17 from 1.69, also a three-month low. North American goods producers nevertheless boosted purchasing activity sharply in response to item shortages and rising backlogs.
EUROPE: Index slipped to 1.13 from 1.43. Factories in Europe cut buying volumes to the greatest extent since the outbreak of the Middle East war, although data shows strong inventory growth.
U.K.: Index fell to 1.05 from 1.34, its lowest level since April as U.K. manufacturers retrench.

JUNE 2026 KEY FINDINGS

DEMAND: Purchasing of raw materials, commodities and intermediate goods required by manufacturers to produce remained strong in June. North America and Asia drove this strength as European factories pulled back. In the US, input buying rose at its fastest pace since April 2022. Japan, China and Vietnam were the Asian markets that recorded accelerated purchasing expansions.
INVENTORIES: Reports of stockpiled materials rising due to price or supply concerns increased again in June and reached their highest since January 2023, signaling a sustained uplift since the Middle East war began. The data suggest that procurement managers around the globe are holding surpluses to protect against shortages and inflation.
MATERIAL SHORTAGES: The items in short supply indicator decreased in June, pointing to some easing of shortages across the globe. That said, supply issues remained high by historical standards, with the underlying index recording well above its long-term average. Notably, backlogs of work have risen sharply due to inadequate item availability.
LABOR SHORTAGES: Manufacturing workforces are not inhibiting capacity, as reports of backlogs rising due to labor shortages aligned with historically average levels.
TRANSPORTATION: With June seeing a sharp decline in global oil prices, the transportation cost indicator subsequently fell. However, excluding April and May, transportation costs were their greatest since June 2022 and still high by historical standards.

For more information, visit www.gep.com/volatility.

Note: Full historical data dating back to January 2005 is available for subscription. Please contact gepvolatility@gep.com.

The next release of the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index will be 8 a.m. ET, Aug. 12, 2026.

About the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index

The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is produced by S and P Global and GEP. It is derived from S and P Global's PMI surveys, sent to companies in over 40 countries, totaling around 27,000 companies. The headline figure is a weighted sum of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price and Supply Indicators compiled by S and P Global.

A value above 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being stretched and supply chain volatility is increasing. The further above 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being stretched.
A value below 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being underutilized, reducing supply chain volatility. The further below 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being underutilized.

A Supply Chain Volatility Index is also published at a regional level for Europe, Asia, North America and the U.K. For more information about the methodology, click here.

About GEP

GEP delivers AI-native procurement and supply chain solutions that help global enterprises become more agile and resilient, operate more efficiently and effectively, gain competitive advantage, boost profitability and increase shareholder value. Fresh thinking, innovative products, unrivaled domain expertise, smart, passionate people - this is how GEP SOFTWARE, GEP STRATEGY and GEP MANAGED SERVICES together deliver procurement and supply chain solutions of unprecedented scale, power and effectiveness. Our customers are the world's best companies, including more than 1,000 Fortune 500 and Global 2000 industry leaders who rely on GEP to meet ambitious strategic, financial and operational goals. A leader in multiple Gartner Magic Quadrants, GEP's cloud-native software and digital business platforms consistently win awards and recognition from industry analysts, research firms and media outlets, including Gartner, Forrester, IDC, ISG, and Spend Matters. GEP is also regularly ranked a top procurement and supply chain consulting and strategy firm, and a leading managed services provider by ALM, Everest Group, NelsonHall, IDC, ISG and HFS, among others. Headquartered in Clark, New Jersey, GEP has offices and operations centers across Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas. To learn more, visit www.gep.com.

Media Contacts

Derek Creevey	Joe Hayes	S and P Global Market Intelligence
Director, Public Relations	Senior Principal Economist	Corporate Communications
GEP	S and P Global Market Intelligence	Email: gepvolatility@gep.com
Phone: +1 646-276-4579	Phone: +44-1344-328-099
Email: derek.creevey@gep.com	Email: joe.hayes@spglobal.com

SOURCE GEP