Published on 13/05/2026 - 15:46 GMT+2

Europe's dependence on US liquefied natural gas is poised to deepen in 2026, as the European Union advances its campaign to end imports of Russian fossil fuels, states a recent IEEFA analysis released on Wednesday.

The study projects the United States will deliver nearly two-thirds of Europe's LNG needs in 2026, solidifying its leading role in the region's gas sector following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Iran conflict, which upended worldwide energy patterns.

IEEFA data indicates the US supplied 57% of Europe's LNG imports in 2025, a dramatic rise from pre-war figures.

The group cautions that this proportion may climb higher in subsequent years if existing import patterns hold and new long-term contracts take effect.

This assessment arrives amid widespread European government pledges to eradicate Russian gas by 2027, in line with the European Commission's REPowerEU initiative.

From 2022 onward, EU nations have aggressively boosted LNG acquisitions, especially from the US, to offset shrinking Russian pipeline supplies.

IEEFA highlights that while this transition has bolstered Europe's immediate energy security, it introduces significant concentration vulnerabilities.

The think tank contends that swapping reliance on Russian gas for heavy dependence on one primary alternative provider leaves Europe susceptible to potential geopolitical and market disruptions.

Declining Demand Yet Surging Imports and Infrastructure Spending

The analysis points out that US LNG typically costs more than pipeline gas due to expenses for liquefaction, transportation, and regasification.

IEEFA calculates that EU states shelled out about €117 billion on US LNG from early 2022 through mid-2025.

Numerous European officials and oversight bodies have flagged risks of over-reliance on LNG imports.

This year, European Commission Executive Vice President Teresa Ribera urged avoiding the swap of one energy dependency for another, calling instead for ramped-up investments in renewables and electrification.

The European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators has similarly voiced worries over supply concentration tied to the expanding US LNG presence in Europe.

Europe's LNG import surge persists even as overall gas use has dropped in recent years.

Sky-high prices from the energy crisis, sluggish industry, conservation efforts, and quicker renewable rollout have all driven down consumption.

IEEFA figures reveal Europe's LNG imports dipped in 2024 as gas demand hit a decade-plus low, but they bounced back in 2025 with harsh winter weather and government pushes to refill storage.

Meanwhile, multiple EU countries keep building out LNG receiving facilities.

Germany, once heavily tied to Russian pipeline gas, has swiftly built floating LNG terminals and become a top European purchaser of US LNG.

Experts wonder if Europe might overbuild LNG capacity, given projections for further gas demand erosion amid the shift to cleaner energy sources.