WASHINGTON - Economists anticipate a notable rise in consumer prices during May, marking the third month in a row, which intensifies worries for Federal Reserve officials combating inflation and emphasizes the challenges higher expenses create for the Trump administration with midterms approaching.

According to a FactSet survey of economists, inflation is forecast to hit 4.2 percent year-over-year when the Labor Department releases its data on Wednesday, up from the 3.8 percent pace recorded in April. Monthly figures are expected to show a 0.5 percent gain, just under the 0.6 percent advance seen the prior month.

Inflation had been easing until President Donald Trump enacted broad tariffs in April 2025 that raised expenses across many products. Costs have climbed further since the Iran conflict drove up oil and gas prices, turning affordability into a major political concern. Analysts now question whether inflation will ease once the conflict concludes and energy prices drop, or whether it will linger afterward.

Some experts express concern that prices remain high in sectors unlikely to be influenced by fuel expenses, including dental services, auto repairs, and other service areas. Meanwhile, wage growth stays moderate, which may limit the need for companies to increase prices again.

Economists and markets will focus on core prices that strip out food and energy volatility. Core inflation is projected to advance 0.3 percent from April per FactSet, a rate that points to annual levels well above the Fed's 2 percent goal. Annually, core inflation could edge up to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent.

Gas prices have declined this month yet climbed in May after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off roughly one-fifth of global oil supply. Pump prices increased on average from about $4.04 in mid-April to $4.49 in mid-May, based on Energy Information Administration data.

They have since retreated to an average of $4.16 nationwide per AAA, potentially yielding a softer inflation print for June.

Costlier diesel has raised shipping expenses, prompting firms such as UPS and FedEx to introduce fuel surcharges recently. This is likely to push grocery prices higher after a 0.7 percent jump in April and a 2.9 percent annual increase.