Although Portugal will not stage any matches, the nation stands to gain as much as 945 million euros from the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to research from IPAM, the Portuguese Institute of Marketing Administration, which examined the event's likely effects on the domestic economy.

The report underscores a fundamental change in football's revenue structure, suggesting that results now hinge less on physical location and more on how supporters, companies and outlets extend the tournament's reach before, during and after fixtures.

IPAM's Sports Marketing Research Unit projects an overall economic boost of between 378 million and 945 million euros, with the final figure depending on the national team's progress.

The lowest projection, linked to an early group-stage exit, stands at 378 million euros. An intermediate outcome, with advancement to the round of 16, could lift the total to 561 million euros. Victory in the final would push the impact to 945 million euros.

Four key drivers underpin the expected growth: rising consumer spending power; the event's placement in robust economies across the United States, Canada and Mexico; expansion to 48 teams and 104 matches; and the rising role of digital platforms as a fresh revenue channel.

The research unit describes the tournament as potentially delivering the largest economic return ever recorded in Portugal from a major sporting event staged abroad.

"Portugal does not have to host the World Cup to secure meaningful gains. The findings illustrate that football's worth is no longer tied mainly to stadiums or host nations. Value now arises through purchases, viewer attention, online engagement and fans' capacity to extend the event's reach," IPAM executive director Daniel Sá stated.

By comparison, Euro 2016, which Portugal claimed, produced 609 million euros in benefits. The upper estimate for 2026 surpasses that total by more than 300 million euros.

World Cup outlays per supporter may span 40 to 3,500 euros

The analysis also stresses "the supporter's emergence as a fresh economic driver". A casual follower, viewed as "a consumer of moments", might contribute between 40 and 70 euros across the competition.

Highly active, digital-first supporters, however, could generate up to 3,500 euros via repeated purchases, cross-platform use, social exchanges and influence on peers.

Conventional spending still dominates, representing roughly 77 percent of the impact, while digital elements already account for 23 percent through streaming services, social platforms and user-created material.

Household outlays form the biggest slice at 26 percent, followed by restaurants and catering at 15 percent and advertising plus media at 14 percent.

Inside the digital portion, streaming and OTT services contribute 10 percent, social media activity 7 percent and the "content economy" 6 percent.

Researchers note that trading cards and stickers (5 percent) together with merchandise (4 percent) show how the World Cup "sparks emotional and collectible markets", fuelling targeted demand and spontaneous buys. Betting (6 percent) also registers as notable, though increasingly folded into wider leisure and ease-of-use patterns.

Travel, by contrast, represents only 4 percent, underscoring both the event's distance from Europe and the study's core finding that gains no longer require physical presence.

"Football keeps driving spending, yet expansion now centres on how that spending is shared, discussed, turned into content and spread further. Nearly one in four euros linked to the World Cup already stems from digital sources," Sá added.

For IPAM, the 2026 tournament also flags strategic issues for brands, media firms and officials, lessons that will matter when Portugal co-hosts the 2030 edition.

"Brands must shift from fixed schedules toward live activations. Media outlets need to blend broadcast, streaming and online material. The broader economy can profit not only via hospitality, retail and tourism but also through fresh income tied to platforms, creators and the attention economy," the institute noted.

The study delivers a wider message for 2030: simply staging such an event does not ensure returns. Real value will depend on effective activation before, during and after the competition.

"Those who grasp the lessons of 2026 will capture more than those who merely air it. This may be the study's central takeaway: the World Cup's worth now resides not only in the matches themselves but in how they are activated," Sá concluded.