As told to

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This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Alexandria Belton, 33, who is in the market for a home in the Bay Area. She has been priced out mainly due to the AI boom. The following has been edited for length and clarity.

My fiancé and I began our home search around October 2025.

Many buyers choose condos because single-family homes cost so much and city living appeals to them, sometimes offering more access through condo options.

For me, my current apartment already provides that urban experience, and buying means wanting a single-family home with a yard in a suburb-adjacent spot.

Plus, condos show weak returns on investment. In this market, condos sell at or below list price while other properties go well above. Investing in the Bay Area requires solid returns.

I live in a two-bedroom, two-bath unit in the Marina District, a desirable and costly area, having moved in 2020 after rents fell.

Back then, rent was $3,695. In fall 2025, a letter announced a retroactive increase. It now stands at $4,378.

My fiancé works in construction, so we favor major fixer-uppers. Our initial budget was about $1.2 million, which we knew was tough in the city even before the current AI-driven activity. Research showed many fixers available in the prior year.

That seemed like a solid plan, yet after viewing several, the last one became our breaking point. We broadened our search beyond the city and spotted a fixer priced near $700,000 or $800,000.

It measured just 800 square feet and appeared rundown, but we imagined its potential. It sold for roughly $1.3 million in its current state.

The outcome stunned us, as it did not match trends from the previous year.

Budget Increases Still Fall Short

We quickly learned not to rely on list prices. Properties typically sell at least $300,000 over asking. Some have exceeded $1 million above the listed amount.

We revised our approach, allowing our budget to rise gradually since $1.2 million yielded nothing, even for fixers.

Our new limit is $1.5 million after shifting focus outside the city. We began exploring Marin, north of the Bay.

It remains part of the Bay Area, roughly a 15-minute drive from San Francisco, with its own appeal including appealing downtown spots for dining and shopping, matching our aim to stay near such amenities instead of true suburbs.

A new agent familiar with Marin heard our San Francisco experiences and noted, "Oh yeah, you are not going to see that here in Marin. Things usually go for about asking, sometimes even below."

She assured us the frenzy would not repeat, yet the first home we bid on listed around $1.1 million and sold for $1.9 million. It was only 1,200 square feet and required extensive repairs.

Our agent observed, "Unfortunately, now we are starting to see the things that are happening in the city as people are probably having the same idea as you to expand their search."

Conversations with others who faced similar tech booms suggest these periods eventually end. Buyers with high earnings tied to the city can pay extraordinary sums whether during a tech surge or the current AI wave.

I remain uncertain how to interpret it. The shift felt sudden. Still, I hold hope for resolution ahead. I hope it proves temporary.

Awaiting Relief from Market Pressures

We have submitted around 10 offers so far. One in Marin came close, yet our instincts signaled we would overpay relative to its documented value. We avoided a hasty choice just to secure a property.

We have analyzed figures extensively to determine a workable budget that avoids feeling house poor and preserves room for other life activities.

Interestingly, we used AI to assist with calculations, but $1.5 million is our ceiling. Adding even $50,000 would increase the mortgage by hundreds monthly when we are already stretched to the limit.

The process drains us mentally and feels disheartening. On paper, our incomes are strong. We can cover a 20 percent down payment and have preparations complete.

The rivalry seems unjust. It appears we lack a real opportunity. I believe we missed our window.

Even so, I do not view it as finished for us.