ByDR. HEZI GUR MIZRAHI

JUNE 21, 2026 08:35

The Consumer Price Index published for May offers an outwardly calm view with a 0.3 percent drop in the headline figure and yearly inflation at 1.9 percent. Breaking the numbers into parts and focusing on the food basket, everyday goods, produce, meat, air travel, lodging, and leisure reveals a far more varied reality. The overall measure eased, yet many households may not have noticed lower totals at the register.

The chief driver behind the headline decline lies outside the typical grocery cart. A steep fall in overseas travel prices, down 16.9 percent, weighed heavily on the broader index. At the same time several items felt directly by families moved higher: fresh fruit climbed 6.7 percent, hotels and guesthouses rose 4.9 percent, clothing increased 1.9 percent, and owner-occupied housing services edged up 0.8 percent.

This contrast highlights the difference between a national statistical tool and daily household experience. The official index covers a wide basket, yet each family follows its own pattern shaped by size, ages of children, shopping routines, neighborhood, brand loyalty, use of promotions, pet ownership, dining out, and vacation choices.

Consequently a drop in the general index does not guarantee that an individual shopping cart will cost less.

Central Bureau of Statistics data show the index fell 0.3 percent in May to 104.8 points on a 2024 base of 100. From January through May the measure rose 1.2 percent, and over the past twelve months it advanced 1.9 percent.

Notable declines appeared in overseas travel, fresh vegetables, dairy, transport, and home furnishings. Notable increases appeared in fresh fruit, hotels, apparel, culture and leisure, and housing costs.

The practical result is straightforward: a lower index does not automatically translate into lower living costs. Households that stayed home, bought groceries, fruit, meat, cleaning supplies, paid rent, or took local trips may have seen little or no benefit from the headline decline.

Food: Headline stability masks internal swings

The food category excluding produce held steady in May. While the flat headline appears reassuring, underlying movements show some goods rising and others falling.

Lower prices were recorded for chicken and turkey liver, processed and frozen poultry items, cookies, certain chicken cuts, cheese, pasta, oils, mayonnaise, shelf-stable milk, and milk alternatives.

Higher prices appeared for spices, frozen and minced beef, canned fish, wine, turkey, jams, soft drinks, coffee, soup mixes, sugar substitutes, and chocolate.

Because the category remained flat overall, families buying more beef, coffee, beverages, and chocolate faced different outcomes than those buying mainly chicken, cheese, and pasta.

Retail Research Institute findings point to higher register totals

A separate sample of frequently purchased dry goods, excluding animal products and produce, showed a 1.40 percent rise in average prices between April and May.

The sample focuses on items that appear often in carts or carry strong perceived weight. It does not replace the official index but adds perspective on prices consumers encounter repeatedly.

The gap between the official food figure and the sample indicates that even without a broad increase, shoppers can still meet higher prices on key items.

Produce: Sharp contrast between fruit and vegetable prices

The produce category rose only 0.1 percent overall, yet internal results diverged sharply. Fresh fruit climbed 6.7 percent while fresh vegetables fell 4.9 percent.

A focused sample of high-impact produce items that includes promotions and market-day pricing recorded a 3.20 percent decline in average consumer cost.

Both sets of figures can be accurate. The official index uses a broad systematic approach, while the sample captures actual register prices with promotions. Shoppers who adjust purchases to season and deals may benefit; those who buy by habit may not.

Meat and animal products: Different households see different results

Meat and related items illustrate household variation. Certain chicken and turkey cuts declined while beef and turkey rose, so relief depends on what each family buys.

Households favoring chicken and selected frozen items may notice savings. Those purchasing minced or frozen beef and turkey may face increases. The key question is what actually enters the family meal plan.

Minced beef, used in many everyday dishes, rose 2.5 percent. Its wider role in meal planning gives the increase greater practical weight than the statistical line alone suggests.

Cleaning, baby, and pet items add to household costs

Living costs extend beyond food. Cleaning supplies rose 2.2 percent, cleaning tools 1.4 percent, air fresheners 1.3 percent, and baby care items 1.7 percent. Pet products fell 1.2 percent.

Impact varies by household. Homes with infants or pets experience different baskets than those without, underscoring that no single consumer profile captures all realities.

Travel and local leisure move in opposite directions

Overseas travel prices dropped 16.9 percent and exerted the largest downward pull on the index. Many families, however, do not fly in May, so the decline does not affect their monthly spending.

Meanwhile hotels rose 4.9 percent, entertainment admissions rose 2.0 percent, and park admissions rose 1.1 percent. Families choosing local vacations or outings encountered higher costs.

The travel decline therefore lowered the national figure without necessarily lowering living costs for most households.

Restaurants face mixed input pressures

No single restaurant price line changed dramatically, yet input costs moved in different directions. Beef, turkey, spices, drinks, and coffee rose while some chicken, cheese, oils, and pasta items fell.

Restaurants relying on higher-cost inputs may respond with smaller portions, fewer promotions, or added fees rather than listed price changes.

Consumption habits shape the real impact

The May data underscore that living-cost discussions must move beyond whether the index rose or fell. Household behavior matters.

Families that plan weekly purchases, seek promotions, and adjust to price signals fare differently from those buying near home by habit. Brand loyalty, shopping frequency, and willingness to substitute items all influence outcomes.

Household size, children's ages, pet ownership, store choice, market-day shopping, and dining-out patterns create a unique personal index for each family.

The national index can fall while an individual family index rises.

Conclusion: Gaps rather than uniform relief

The May index declined, yet the story is one of divergence between travel and groceries, vegetables and fruit, chicken and beef, official numbers and register totals, planned and convenience shopping, and national statistics versus lived experience.

The index is a single number. The cost of living reflects daily choices.

Households that track prices, adapt habits, buy seasonally, and substitute items can limit the effect. Those continuing unchanged patterns may still feel prices rising even when the headline index falls.