Published on 14/07/2026 - 7:23 GMT+2

June's export increase far exceeded economist forecasts after May posted a 19.4 percent year-on-year rise.

Imports climbed 36 percent in June, outpacing May's 27.4 percent gain, as analysts linked part of the rise to higher costs tied to the Iran conflict.

The country posted a June trade surplus of $125.6 billion, up from $105.4 billion the prior month.

Trade values posted another strong advance in June, noted Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China Economics at Capital Economics, in a Tuesday report. The move largely stems from higher semiconductor prices amid the AI expansion, though underlying foreign demand for Chinese products stays solid.

Vehicle shipments, particularly electric models, along with other technology goods have expanded rapidly as AI adoption lifts requirements for chips and related electronics.

Robust export manufacturing has helped counter extended softness in local consumption and investment amid the ongoing property sector slump.

Over the first half of the year, exports rose 17.6 percent from a year earlier while imports increased 26.6 percent, per customs figures.

Officials in the United States and Europe have voiced concern over widening trade gaps with China. To navigate tariffs and other restrictions, firms have shifted production to areas including Europe and increased shipments to Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa.

Although export expansion should persist, momentum appears more vulnerable, according to Wei Li, head of multi-asset investments at BNP Paribas Securities China. Continued strength in autos and AI-linked goods will hinge on worldwide demand and regulatory hurdles.

Shipments to Southeast Asia rose nearly 35 percent year on year in June, while those to the European Union and Latin America grew more than 18 percent and 28 percent respectively.

Exports to the United States advanced almost 14 percent from a year earlier, supported by lower base levels after higher tariffs took effect following President Donald Trump's return to office last year.

China will release second-quarter economic growth figures on Wednesday. Leaders have targeted 4.5 percent to 5 percent expansion for the full year, modestly below the 5 percent recorded in 2025.

The International Monetary Fund last week lifted its China growth projection by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6 percent yet forecast only 4.1 percent expansion in 2027.

Authorities have introduced measures such as trade-in subsidies for vehicles and appliances to support consumer outlays, yet many households remain cautious amid slower growth and are deferring major purchases.